Johannesburg, South Africa – Former President Jacob Zuma appears to be emerging as the biggest winner in South Africa’s general elections, while his new breakaway party, the uMkhonto we Sizwe Party (MK Party), appears to be making big gains at the expense of the ruling African National Congress (ANC).

With more than two thirds of the votes counted On Friday evening, it seemed as if the MK was on the verge of taking power in KwaZulu-Natal, with the party comfortably leading the province where the ANC had never lost since the first post-apartheid elections in 1994.

At national level, Results came inWith around 12 percent of the vote, the MK came in third place, behind the ANC with around 42 percent and the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (23 percent). The votes counted so far paint a clear picture that the MK has won over large parts of the ANC’s traditional support in its strongholds.

Apart from KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape, where the DA seemed to be returning to power with a clear majority, the ANC also suffered a heavy defeat in Gauteng province, and here too it is far from having a majority of its own.

Over the past two days, these tendencies have only become more entrenched. And if they continue, the ANC will have to ask some opposition parties for support in a national coalition government – for the first time in 30 years – if it wants to stay in power under President Cyril Ramaphosa. It will also have to do the same to stay in power in provinces like Gauteng.

These results signaled the “death of ANC dominance,” said analyst Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh.

“I think it’s good. There is as much hope as there should be fear. People are anxious and uncertain about what is going to happen; it will open up new avenues for change and new avenues for accountability,” he said. Mpofu-Walsh said the ANC’s electoral defeat was a combination of arrogance and denial of its mistakes.

Independent political analyst Sandile Swana said the ANC had joined other liberation movements that were punished for failing to deliver on their promises of freedom. “Swapo in Namibia, Zanu PF in Zimbabwe and the ANC in South Africa are in the same boat,” he said, referring to the parties that led the independence movements in Namibia and Zimbabwe respectively.

Imraan Buccus, an academic and researcher at the Auwal Socio-economic Research Institute, said the election results pointed to the implosion of the ANC. “It is in line with what has happened to liberation movements across Africa. There are examples in Zambia and Kenya,” he said.

Buccusa said the election result was due to a combination of ANC failure and an unequal economy.

According to the World Bank, 55 percent of South Africa’s population lives in poverty. The 30 years of ANC rule have been marked by rising unemployment – currently it stands at 33 percent. Systemic corruption and government inefficiency, which lead to a deterioration in living conditions, are other problems facing South Africans.

Populist politics

Initial election forecasts suggest that although the ANC suffered massive vote losses, the other opposition parties were unable to capitalise on this.

When the results came in, the DA made slight gains. Its leader John Steenhuisen told reporters on Friday that he was pleased with his party’s growth. “Growth is growth,” he said when asked about his party’s slight increase. In the 2019 election, it won 21 percent of the vote and seats.

It now seems that it is not only the ANC that has lost voters to the MK. The votes of the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters have also declined.

The MK Party gained support in Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal, attracting voters in both rural and urban areas, as well as in the provinces of Gauteng and Mpumalanga.

Zuma, a key figure in the anti-apartheid movement who was removed from the presidency in 2018 amid a spate of corruption allegations, is popular with many South Africans and has relied on populist policies to win votes.

During the election campaign, he blamed South Africa’s problems on “white monopoly capital” and portrayed his successor, Ramaphosa, as an “agent of capital.” He also criticised the ANC for its failings, without acknowledging that he was party leader for ten years and vice president for just as many. Zuma made bold promises to end unemployment and poverty.

He has denied any wrongdoing and portrayed himself as a victim of the justice system. The former president has a previous conviction for contempt of court and was imprisoned for this in July 2021.

Swana said Zuma’s scandals had not affected his support. “Zuma has managed to portray himself as a victim who is being persecuted by everyone,” he said.

ANC national chairperson Gwede Manatshe admitted he was surprised by the MK Party’s performance in KwaZulu-Natal and acknowledged that the ANC had performed poorly in this year’s elections.

“MK are doing well in KZN; they surprised me a little bit,” he said.

Mantashe, on the other hand, attributed Zuma’s support to ethnic nationalism, arguing that Zuma had appealed to the province’s Zulu population, with whom he shares a tribal identity, to mobilize support.

But Swana said Zuma’s support goes beyond identity politics.

“The people of KwaZulu-Natal love Zuma,” he said, attributing this to the role he played in negotiating an end to post-apartheid violence among the province’s Zulu majority.

He pointed out that Zuma’s entry into the MK party had led to a de facto split in the ANC and that many other party leaders and supporters had also defected to the former president’s new political home.

This internal division has caused significant costs to the ANC, he said.

Zuma’s use of populist policies and rhetoric and his success with this strategy are in line with the global trend of supporting populist leaders, Buccus said, citing former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte as examples.

“Given the current failures of the ANC government, people are looking for alternatives,” he said. “Examples like this exist around the world.”

Who will form the next government?

While the Electoral Commission is expected to announce the final results on Sunday, the ANC has already begun informal talks with potential coalition partners.

Mantashe of the ANC said the party had not planned this outcome: “Coalitions are a consequence, consequences are not planned.”

However, the MK party had ruled out a coalition with the ANC.

Other opposition parties did not say whether they would consider talks with the ANC. They said they would wait for the final results to be announced. By law, a president must be elected within 14 days of the Electoral Commission announcing the election results.

Mpofu-Walsh said South Africa’s political terrain was expected to be “noisy and unstable”.

However, he said the full consequences of the decline in support for the ANC would become apparent over time.