Where are damaging earthquakes more likely to happen? New maps explains

Where are damaging earthquakes more likely to happen? New maps explains


(NEXSTAR) – While areas like California and the West Coast are top of mind when thinking about where earthquakes occur in the U.S., a new report shows that nearly 75% of the country could be affected by a devastating earthquake.

The US Geological Survey released a new map on Tuesday showing which parts of the country are most at risk from earthquakes. It is part of the latest USGS National Seismic Hazard Model and was created using seismic studies, historical geological data and the latest data collection technologies, according to a Press release.

“Earthquakes are difficult to predict, but we have made great progress with this new model,” Mark Petersen, USGS geophysicist and lead author of the study, said in the press release. “The update includes more faults, better characterized land surfaces and computational modeling advances that provide the most detailed view of the earthquake risks we ever face.”

According to the USGS, this is the first comprehensive assessment of the entire country. Since the latest version for the contiguous U.S. was released in 2018, researchers have found a higher risk of damaging earthquakes in California and Alaska, as well as parts of the Northeast such as Philadelphia, Boston, New York and Washington, D.C. Hawaii is also listed due to “recent volcanic eruptions and seismic unrest on the islands,” which means there is a higher chance of damaging tremors.

The USGS has released the map below showing the likelihood of “damaging earthquake tremors,” which are considered VI the modified Mercalli intensity scale will occur throughout the United States over the next century. This scale is based on the intensity of the quake, or how you or a building would experience it, Alexandra Hatem, a research geologist at the USGS who has worked on the US National Seismic Hazard Model, told Nexstar. It is not the same as the magnitude that describes the earthquake itself.

A shaking corresponding to modified Mercalli intensity VI is considered strong and is described as “felt by all, frightening many.” Some heavy furniture was moved; a few patches of fallen plaster. Damage minor.”

Dark red areas such as parts of southern Alaska and western California have a greater than 95% chance of such devastating earthquakes occurring in the next 100 years. Yellow shaded bodies have a 25 to 50% chance of experiencing the same severe shaking.

The National Seismic Hazard Model, released by the US Geological Survey in early 2024, shows the likelihood of damaging earthquakes in the US over the next 100 years.

As you can see, much of the country is green or blue, the lowest levels on the map. This does not mean that these areas cannot suffer an earthquake. A 2.5 magnitude earthquake was discovered in the northern Wisconsin community of Crandon, an area well within a blue area on the map above. Related to User reportsThe intensity of the quake was between I and III on the modified Mercalli scale. Residents felt the tremors, but no damage was reported.

Rather, the map is intended to warn of strong earthquakes.

“[Intensity] “Changes if you change your distance, or what your building is built on, if you move different distances from the epicenter,” Hatem explains. The intensity used in the study serves as a “threshold that most people will feel and experience and remember,” she adds.

One such earthquake occurred in Texas late last year. On November 8, a magnitude 5.2 quake occurred near Coalson Draw, Nexstar’s KMID Reports. In nearby Odessa, a resident reported that patient beds and medical equipment at the Medical Center Hospital were shaking. Others said the vibrations woke them up and caused objects to fall from desks.

The intensity of the quake was estimated at VII strength on the modified Mercalli scale. Actually User reports Values ​​collected by the USGS placed the tremor closer to VI intensity.

The map also does not serve as a prediction of where a strong earthquake will occur, but rather highlights the areas at higher risk of an earthquake. Quakes can happen anywhere, Hatem notes, although of course they are more common in some places than others.



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