With just over a day left, the United States averted another government shutdown Thursday evening as President Joe Biden signed a last-minute bill to maintain funding for federal agencies through the new year.

The bill was hailed as a bipartisan success — and a decisive victory for the newly appointed Speaker of the House Mike Johnsonwho was elected to office just three weeks ago.

But analysts say this short-term victory could spell long-term problems for Johnson as he leads a fractured Republican caucus in the House of Representatives.

“Some people believe that Johnson’s success in passing the continuing resolution suggests that the far right in the GOP will agree with the new speaker,” said Richard F. Bensel, a professor of government at Cornell University.

“I interpret the event differently because Johnson has deeply offended these far-right members and they will now make life very difficult for him and the rest of the Republican Party.”

Government spending is a continually contentious issue in the U.S. Congress, as many Republicans push for deeper budget cuts and Democrats often seek to protect or expand social programs.

However, if the two parties fail to pass the budget legislation, the government risks shutting down all non-essential functions. This leaves government services in limbo and employees and contractors unpaid, potentially hurting the country’s overall economic growth.

Republicans and Democrats had set November 17 as the next deadline for passing new funding legislation. Facing the prospect of an impending shutdown, Johnson put forward an unusual proposal: a two-stage stopgap bill – or a “rolling solution” – that would allow government services to temporarily continue at current spending levels.

The catch, however, was that Congress had to revisit the budget issue twice in the new year. Funding for veterans services, housing, agriculture and energy would need to be voted on before Jan. 19, and the rest of the budget would need to be passed by Feb. 2.

Nevertheless, Johnson’s bill proved to be a successful compromise. It passed the house on Tuesday by a vote of 336 to 95, thanks to nearly unanimous support from Democrats.

It also made it through the Democratic-controlled Senate, allowing Biden to sign it into law late Thursday.

Johnson called the passage of the law “a gift to the American people,” sparing the country economic uncertainty and legislative gridlock.

“It’s going to change the way we’ve done this,” Johnson said of his two-tier solution. “We broke the fever.”

Backlash from the Freedom Caucus

But the bill failed to wrest major concessions from Democrats, including the significant budget cuts that the far-right had demanded. As a result, a total of 93 Republicans in the House of Representatives voted against the continuing resolution, breaking away from Johnson.

“If we scored – and of course everyone in Washington does – it would be a clear victory for the Democrats. Given divided government, Democrats would prefer such a continuing resolution through February 2025,” said Bensel, a professor at Cornell University.

The Republican opposition included a group of about 30 self-described financial conservatives known as “The.” Freedom Caucus. One of the faction members LeaderRep. Chip Roy called the bill a “strategic failure” and a “mistake” that Johnson made “from the start.”

“When are we going to do what we promised?” Roy asked on the House floor. “When will we be able to prevent and stop the reckless spending?”

Critics have pointed out that the Freedom Caucus is often a disruptive presence in Congress and views members of the Democratic Party as “enemies” and “Marxists.” Cooperation is therefore not an option.

Nicholas F. Jacobs, a government professor at Colby College, said suppressing bills like the budget resolution could actually reap political dividends for members of the Freedom Caucus.

“What sets them apart is that they don’t feel the same pressure to vote when the government shuts down as every other member of Congress, Republican or Democrat,” Jacobs said.

In fact, he added, hard-line tactics — even risking a government shutdown — could actually appeal to their far-right base. “They can still score points if they claim on Twitter or Fox that they will do everything they can to reduce the national debt.”

A speaker from the fringe

Although Johnson may have angered the Freedom Caucus, he himself retains his reputation as a far-right Republican. Jacobs warned that the bipartisan success of Johnson’s funding bill should not be seen as a shift to the center for either Republicans or Democrats.

“I don’t think we can expect a pragmatic turnaround anytime soon,” Jacobs said. “Democrats are enjoying the fact that Republicans can’t govern right now.”

Bensel also expressed doubts about whether the bipartisan spending bill was a sign of political pragmatism in Congress. Rather, Johnson is seen as part of an ongoing rightward shift in the Republican Party.

Johnson, once a little-known representative from Louisiana, is considered a loyal supporter of the former President Donald Trump and a key figure behind the effort to achieve this undermine the 2020 electionwhich Trump lost.

“On social and cultural issues, Johnson is even more abhorrent to Democrats than Donald Trump, which will make pragmatic politics difficult,” Bensel said.

Bensel also noted Johnson’s prominent support of the Christian right. In his first interview as a speaker, Johnson told television host Sean Hannity that his worldview was shaped by the Bible.

“His evangelical Christian beliefs place him on the fringes of the Republican Party, a party otherwise known for its religious commitment,” Bensel said. “Johnson’s strong convictions could ultimately trip him up if he is forced to choose between them and more pragmatic policies.”

A study in contrasts

Regardless of Johnson’s political and religious leanings, Bensel questions whether any Republican speaker can keep the gavel bitterly divided house.

Just a month and a half ago, on October 3rd, right-wing extremist party members led a successful effort to overthrow Johnson’s predecessor former speaker Kevin McCarthy, after he also agreed to a bipartisan budget compromise. McCarthy had only been speaker for nine months.

“It may be that no Republican can survive as speaker in the current House for very long,” Bensel said.

But Bensel and other analysts acknowledged that there are key differences between McCarthy and Johnson that could affect their respective fates as party leaders.

Robert Y. Shapiro, a government professor at Columbia University, told Al Jazeera that McCarthy was not seen as a steadfast supporter of the far right.

“He was not a sufficient supporter of all Trump-related issues and vigorously opposed the election,” Shapiro said. “He was not a visible supporter of the Freedom Caucus and right-wing rhetoric and insanity and was seen as more willing to work with Democrats.”

He added that Johnson’s status as a speaker candidate proved an advantage.

“Johnson, meanwhile, was not well known, so without McCarthy’s baggage, and he was a strong supporter of Trump — and another election denier,” Shapiro said.

McCarthy’s removal as speaker in October sparked one longer search for a replacement that shined a spotlight on the disarray in the Republican Party.

Johnson needed three weeks of intra-party arguments and several votes emerge as winner. Shapiro said Republicans will likely try to project an image of stability going forward — and that will help protect Johnson’s position as speaker, at least in the short term.

“They’re not going to kick him out either because House Republicans realize how bad it would look to kick him out and have another fight for speaker,” he said.

In addition, with the 2024 presidential election Shapiro believes the divide within the Republican Party has an expiration date.

“Ultimately, in the 2024 election, these divisions will fade to the point where virtually all Republican members of Congress and the Senate support Trump or whoever the Republican nominee is.”