When Sudan’s civil war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) broke out in April, the paramilitary group’s leader, Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, went into hiding.

Many speculated he was seriously injured or even dead until he appeared at a photo op with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on Wednesday.

The next day, Hemedti visited Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, ostensibly to discuss strategies to end the Sudanese conflict. He also traveled through Ghana and Djibouti.

UPDATE – President Museveni has met with General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, former deputy chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council of Sudan, at his country residence in Rwakitura. Among other things, they discussed ways to end the ongoing conflict in Sudan. #UBCNEWS pic.twitter.com/HxFzdIN0t5

— UBC UGANDA (@ubctvuganda) December 27, 2023

Analysts believe Hemedti’s true motive was to secure regional support to capture all of Sudan from the army.

Last month, the RSF captured the state of Gezira – a breadbasket for Sudan – giving the group a clear upper hand over the army.

But rather than capitalize on military success in negotiations to end the conflict, Hemedti appears to have ambitions to rule all of Sudan, analysts, Sudanese journalists and diplomats say.

“Hemedti urgently needs people who feel that the RSF is a ruling force. I think that’s why Hemedti met heads of state,” said Kholood Khair, a Sudan expert and founding director of think tank Confluence Advisory.

“Hemedti will try as much as possible to conform to this idea of ​​a leader,” Khair told Al Jazeera.

Red herring

On December 9, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), an eight-member East African bloc, Approved A statement said Hemedti and army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan would meet in person in two weeks.

But Hemedti traveled to Uganda the day before his meeting with al-Burhan for ceasefire talks in Djibouti. IGAD postponed the talks for “technical reasons”.

On Monday, Hemedti met with the former Sudanese prime minister and the head of a new government educated The coordination of the Civil Democratic Forces (CDF) Abdallah Hamdok in Ethiopia.

Taqaddum has announced that he would also invite al-Burhan to another meeting, but there is no information as to whether this invitation was accepted.

Khair believes that both Hemedti and al-Burhan are engaging in and derailing mediation efforts to buy time for their military operations.

“This is all a diversionary tactic… to gain international recognition while trying to make up some ground [in the war]” she told Al Jazeera.

In October, the RSF captured several army garrisons in the sprawling western Darfur region, just as U.S.-backed mediation talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, were set to resume after a lengthy break.

Jonas Horner, an independent expert on Sudan, told Al Jazeera that the expansion of the RSF as it draws more states to the north and east is not sustainable.

He noted that the paramilitaries recruited many members of their tribal base in Darfur in return for allowing the militants to loot the towns they captured. But the looting of homes, hospitals, United Nations warehouses and markets has led to popular resentment and hatred toward the group, he said.

“[The RSF’s] “Atrocities and their extreme cruelty … are probably their greatest obstacle and complicate their prospects of governing the country,” Horner said.

“I think so many Sudanese … will never feel comfortable with the RSF ruling them,” he added.

Try to govern

Although the RSF commits countless human rights violations, it tries to maintain law and order in the regions it controls, said Sudanese journalist Mohamad el-Fatih Yousif from Darfur.

He told Al Jazeera that the paramilitaries had set up a department called Civil and Political Management, whose paid staff were responsible for repairing basic services such as hospitals, power grids and water stations in Nyala, the capital of South Darfur.

“There is relative security in Nyala at the moment,” said el-Fatih Yousif. “All the RSF fighters who looted Nyala have left. They all went to Gezira state.”

The RSF has too founded a local police force in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum, which is largely controlled by it. Police forces were also ordered to maintain order throughout Darfur.

Many activists and analysts deride the group’s alleged attempt to fight crime and blame the RSF for much of the theft, violence and lawlessness in the country.

This is a farce.

Will RSF police arrest RSF troops for killing, looting, destruction of property, occupation of houses, sexual violence and other crimes in which they were involved in Khartoum and other areas? https://t.co/0iM6rcOFQF

— Lauren Blanchard (@LaurenBinDC) December 13, 2023

“This is a travesty,” tweeted Lauren Blanchard, Sudan expert and African affairs specialist at the Congressional Research Service.

“Will RSF police arrest RSF troops for killing, looting, destruction of property, occupation of houses, sexual violence and other crimes in which they were involved in Khartoum and other areas?”

A partner in crime?

While almost no one in northern and eastern Sudan is willing to live under Hemedti, European countries would cooperate with the RSF if it took over the entire country, according to a Western diplomat who spoke to Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity.

He said that in the interest of curbing migration from Africa to Europe, the European Union had already signed partnerships with strong leaders such as Tunisian President Kais Said and an eastern Libyan militia linked to renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar.

The EU also previously worked with the RSF on migration under the Khartoum Process, a 2014 migration pact between the EU and countries in the Horn of Africa to combat human trafficking and smuggling.

According to open source research from human rights groups, the EU stopped cooperating with Sudan after the RSF led an attack on a sit-in on June 3, 2019. At least 120 people were killed in what survivors and human rights groups called a massacre.

“Europe denied ever directly supporting the RSF, but did. And I think they will continue to do so in the future if necessary,” the diplomat told Al Jazeera.

“And if it turns out that the RSF is about to take over all of Sudan, then I think the EU will face having to publicly condemn what the RSF is doing.

“But I do not think so [the EU] will stop the RSF or support any country to prevent the RSF from taking over the country.”