Cyril Ramaphosa took office as South Africa’s president a few years ago with the enthusiasm and optimism of the country’s emerging black professionals, who saw themselves in him: a level-headed businessman with intellectual authority. He seemed to be an antidote to the previous government, which had cast black professionals as elitists complicit in the continued white dominance of the economy.

But when voters go to the polls on Wednesday in South Africa’s most important election since the end of apartheid 30 years ago, black professionals pose one of the biggest threats to the precarious grip on power of Mr Ramaphosa and his party, the African National Congress (ANC).

Surveys predict that the party will receive less than 50 percent of the national vote for the first time since the country’s first democratic elections in 1994. And black academics could play a significant role in the ANC’s downfall.

After quitting the ANC during the scandal-plagued tenure of Ramaphosa’s predecessor, Jacob Zuma, many of the party’s members returned to the party in the 2019 elections, believing Ramaphosa could clean up corruption and turn around the sluggish economy, according to interviews with political analysts and black professionals.

The return of these voters to the ANC in the last election helped the party to a comfortable majority, according to political analysts.

But now some black professionals say they are disillusioned with Ramaphosa because they believe he has not acted decisively enough to revive the economy and eliminate corruption in the ANC. Shocking unemploymentPoverty, crime and a lack of basic services have left many South Africans fed up with the government.

“It just feels like he hasn’t been brave enough,” says Polo Leteka, a 48-year-old venture capitalist. While she praises Ramaphosa for restructuring some state institutions, she believes he consults too much before taking action. “I think there’s a balance between consulting and being authoritarian. And I don’t think he’s got that balance right as a leader.”

Black professionals belong to the middle and upper classes, usually have a higher level of education, work in office jobs and can afford basic necessities such as food, accommodation and medical care. This group has grown significantly since the end of apartheid: According to researchers at the University of Cape Town, there are 3.4 million of South Africa’s 62 million inhabitants. Black professionals make up only 7 percent of the black population, but have a purchasing power of 22 billion dollars, according to the researchers.

According to the latest data from independent research institute Afrobarometer, Ramaphosa had an approval rating of 41 percent among the black middle and upper classes in 2022. But only 30 percent of people from the wealthy black class said this year that they would vote for the ANC in an election, compared to 51 percent in 2018, just months after Ramaphosa became president.

Bonke Madlongolwana, 25, owner of a firewood wholesale business and law student, made a blunt diagnosis of Ramaphosa: “I think he lacks backbone.”

Ramaphosa rejected accusations that he was a weak leader, pointing to recent improvements at the state-owned energy and railway companies as evidence that his leadership style was bearing fruit.

“If you want a president who is dictatorial, adventurous and ruthless, you will not find that in me,” he told a recent town hall meeting with young professionals in Johannesburg, wearing a dark suit instead of the gold ANC polo shirt he usually wears to campaign rallies. “In me you will find a president who wants to consult. I say I am decisive, but I want to take people with me.”

While the party’s support comes primarily from the poor and working class, black professionals, with their wealth and access to power, have a disproportionate influence on political developments that affect voters across the country.

It may seem paradoxical that the ANC enjoys greater support among economically weak black South Africans than among the wealthy black population that has benefited most from the party’s leadership. But the black middle and upper classes tend to be more difficult to please, said several politicians and black experts.

They are not enticed by the public jobs, free public housing and cash handouts that party leaders promise their poor and working-class voters. Instead, they are interested in seeing corrupt officials prosecuted, in seeing state-owned enterprises given competent management, and in seeing policies that enable their enterprises to compete with white-owned enterprises.

Black professionals say they also feel the burden of widespread poverty: Many pay the so-called “black tax,” sending part of their income home to support unemployed family members. Black professionals also resent being forced to pay for private security, schools and hospitals because of government inadequacies.

For many, these burdens undermine the party’s argument that black professionals have been able to escape poverty thanks to government incentives or federal college subsidies.

“You can’t clap a fish for swimming,” said Mr Madlongolwana, adding that it is the duty of any functioning government to provide educational and economic opportunities to its people.

Critics of Ramaphosa say he has sometimes been more concerned with settling factional fights within the party than making difficult decisions that could benefit the country, such as sacking incompetent ministers. Ramaphosa’s supporters, however, say his level-headed approach has saved South Africa from crisis and repaired corrupt state institutions.

“The only thing you can count on with his presidency is that there will be great political stability,” says Sarah Mokwebo, 32, who works in the national finance ministry.

Mdumiseni Ntuli, the party’s campaign manager, said the ANC needed to do a better job of explaining to the black middle class why the country continued to face challenges, such as the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy.

While the ANC’s election campaign focuses primarily on spirited rallies in poor and working-class neighborhoods, it addresses middle-class voters in a more reserved manner: at meetings in private homes, at banquets or dinners, or at discussions on university campuses.

In his typical campaign speeches to black politicians, Ramaphosa highlights the corrupt institutions, the energy crisis and the broken ports and railway system that his government inherited. He tries to paint a picture of a South Africa that is moving in the right direction.

But the ANC is competing with 51 opposition parties this year, and 11 of them have formed a bloc led by the Democratic Alliance, the country’s second-largest party. The ANC is still expected to have a majority, but if it receives less than 50 percent of the vote, it will have to join forces with one or more opposition parties to form a government.

Songezo Zibi, a former journalist and corporate communications manager, founded a political party called Rise Mzansi last year that aims to appeal to disaffected black middle- and upper-class voters. One challenge, he said, is trying to motivate black professionals to become politically active.

“They will ask, ‘What will you do for me?'” he said. “They will hang on the coattails of politicians and let them help them realize their dreams.”

For many black academics, the ANC’s heyday was the time of Thabo Mbeki, who succeeded Nelson Mandela as president in 1999. Mbeki was heavily involved in policies to ensure greater black ownership of businesses.

But the backlash from those who felt he had failed the poor led to the rise of Zuma, a populist who portrayed himself as a champion of ordinary people. Zuma derided black businessmen as “smart blacks” who looked down on those with less education and less wealth.

When Ramaphosa succeeded Zuma in 2018, who had resigned amid damning corruption allegations, black business leaders were optimistic. Ramaphosa had become a billionaire after apartheid through ANC policies that incentivised companies to transfer their shares to black people. Many believed he would champion black entrepreneurs and was too wealthy to succumb to the temptation of corruption.

Andile Nomlala, a 40-year-old entrepreneur working in real estate and agriculture, recalled a pre-election gathering in the upscale Johannesburg suburb of Sandton in 2019 where Mr Ramaphosa met with about 300 black professionals.

At a podium, Mr Ramaphosa vowed to increase the number of black businesses and eradicate corruption in the party through good governance, Mr Nomlala recalled.

“When I left the room, there was nothing in my heart but hope,” said Mr Nomlala, voting for the ANC for the first time since Mbeki’s presidency.

But the last five years have left him bitter. He believes Ramaphosa has been too slow to address the power crisis and hold corrupt officials to account.

“We are deeply disappointed,” said Nomlala. “People are angry with the ANC.”