Nervousness was high among South Africans on Thursday as few votes were left in a close parliamentary election. Early results showed a poor showing for the African National Congress, the party that has ruled the country for three decades.

While official results are not expected until the weekend, forecasters say the party, known as the ANC, is likely to receive less than 50 percent of the vote, down from 57.5 percent in the last election five years ago.

This would mean that the ANC would have to form a coalition with one or more rival parties – for the first time – to stay in power. In South Africa’s parliamentary system, President Cyril Ramaphosa, the leader of the African National Congress, would need the support of the opposition to be able to run for a second term.

A weakened ANC would significantly change South African politics and its policies. The country would move from a government dominated by a single party to one held together by fragile coalitions. This strategy has worked for the ANC in small communities, but has been problematic in large cities like Johannesburg, leading to internal power struggles.

After about half of all constituencies had been counted, the initial results showed 43 percent for the ANC, with the ANC lagging behind in the crucial provinces despite having won significantly in the last election.

These early results for the ANC come largely from rural areas that have remained loyal to the party. In South Africa’s most populous province of Gauteng, only 12 percent of constituencies had confirmed their results by Thursday.

51 opposition parties are vying for votes. The largest, the Democratic Alliance, is led by John Steenhuisen, a white politician in a predominantly black country. Before the election, the Democratic Alliance formed an alliance with smaller opposition parties.

Without the support of the Democratic Alliance, the ANC may have to form a coalition with the next largest opposition party, the Economic Freedom Fighters, a left-wing party that enjoys strong support among young voters. Its leader, Julius Malema, founded the Economic Freedom Fighters in 2013 after being expelled from the ANC’s youth league.

A new party, uMkhonto weSizwe, or MK, led by former president Jacob Zuma, who also split from the African National Congress, showed early strength in Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal. Zuma’s daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, recently said the MK party would not work with Ramaphosa.

Some analysts do not rule out that the ANC could still win more than 50 percent of the vote. The party could also lose support in provinces such as the Eastern Cape and Limpopo, which would give it greater negotiating power with the opposition parties.

The elections take place 30 years after the end of apartheid, at a time when South Africa’s economy is weak, youth unemployment is high and the mood in the country is depressed.

Queues snaked around polling stations on election day on Wednesday. New voting rules and an additional ballot paper to fill out caused delays, the Electoral Commission acknowledged. Nevertheless, thousands of South Africans were still in line until 9pm when polls closed, braving the chilly autumn air as they waited for their chance to cast their vote. The Electoral Commission said initial figures showed voter turnout was higher than in the last national election in 2019.

“We’re fed up,” said Isabel Olatunji, who was waiting with her young son in a stroller outside a polling station in a northern suburb of Johannesburg. Olatunji, 32, said she was “60 percent optimistic” that the election would bring change or at least “get the ball rolling.”