The African National Congress (ANC) lost its political dominance in South Africa after election results on Saturday showed that the party received only about 40 percent of the vote after almost all votes were counted, falling short of an absolute majority for the first time since defeating the last white-led regime in Africa 30 years ago.

Although South Africans face one of the world's highest unemployment rates, electricity and water shortages and rampant crime, the ruling party still prevailed against its rivals but was unable to maintain the almost 58 percent share of the vote it won in the last election in 2019.

The stunning collapse of Africa's oldest liberation movement has set one of the continent's most stable countries and its largest economy on a bumpy and unknown course.

The party that rose to international fame on the shoulders of Nelson Mandela now has two weeks to cobble together a government by working with one or more rival parties that they have derided as corrupt and vowed never to form an alliance with.

“I am really shocked,” said Maropene Ramokgopa, one of the most senior officials of the African National Congress (ANC). “It opened our eyes and said to us: 'Look, somewhere we are missing something.'”

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, leader of the ANC, faces a serious threat to his ambitions for a second term. He will be forced to bring back the negotiating skills that once helped him end apartheid and to bring unity back to his deeply fragmented party, which is unlikely to agree on which party to ally with.

Critics are expected to blame Ramaphosa for this slump and seek to replace him, possibly with his deputy Paul Mashatile. The party's biggest election-to-election decline to date was 4.7 percent in 2019.

“I did not expect that in five years Ramaphosa would make things worse than he found them,” says Khulu Mbatha, an ANC veteran who accuses the party of not being aggressive enough against corruption.

The parties must work out their coalition agreements before the 400-member National Assembly must meet and elect the president. Fifty-two parties participated in the national election, and the number of seats the parties receive in the assembly is determined by the percentage of votes they won. Without an absolute majority, the ANC can no longer personally select the country's head of state.

“South Africa will have some teething issues at the start of this era,” says Pranish Desai, a data analyst at the non-partisan organization Good Governance Africa. “Some of these could be significant, but voters have decided that this is what they want.”

Because of the large gap it faces in reaching 50 percent of the vote, the ANC cannot simply tie up smaller parties that would have given it a dominant share of the government, political analysts say, but instead must look to some of the larger parties with which it has been fiercely contested during the election campaign.

A big question is whether the ANC will embrace or shun the new party led by Jacob Zuma, Ramaphosa's arch-enemy and predecessor as president and ANC leader.

Zuma, who was forced to resign in 2018 over corruption scandals, felt betrayed by the party and his former deputy Ramaphosa and helped form a new party, uMkhonto weSizwe, or MK, the ANC's armed wing during the anti-apartheid struggle. Zuma was barred from running for parliament, but MK had a remarkable showing at the ballot box, analysts said, stealing crucial votes from the ANC and other parties.

“Of course it surprised the ANC,” said Nomvula Mokonyane, one of the ANC's most senior officials, of the MK's performance. “It exceeded our expectations.”

Zuma's party officials have said they are ready to work with any party, meaning that it is not out of the question that Zuma could reunite with his former friends who are now his enemies – even if this could be humiliating for the ANC.

Another potential ally of the ANC is the Democratic Alliance, which received the second largest share of the vote. Some ANC members accuse the Democratic Alliance of promoting policies that would essentially take the country back to apartheid. Others, however, see a partnership between the two parties as a natural fit, as the Democratic Alliance's market-oriented economic outlook is closely aligned with Ramaphosa's.

But joining this grand coalition could prove politically risky for Ramaphosa, as the Democratic Alliance is firmly opposed to racist policies aimed at increasing black employment and prosperity. The Democratic Alliance has also pushed issues that appeal to the right-leaning white population.

The ANC could instead turn to the Economic Freedom Fighters, a party founded ten years ago by Julius Malema, one of the ANC's expelled youth leaders. Analysts say this partnership could scare off big business and international investors because of the Economic Freedom Fighters' insistence on nationalising mines and other businesses and taking land from white owners to redistribute it to black South Africans.

But such a coalition would be attractive to some ANC members because Malema was one of them and a large part of the party ideologically agrees with the Economic Freedom Fighters' philosophy of wealth redistribution.

There are fears that the country is heading for political chaos that could distract attention from its many problems. Coalition governments at the local level have proven unstable, leadership changes at whim and internal power struggles are so fierce that parliamentarians are failing to deliver for their constituents.

The country is facing major economic and social challenges, and many South Africans are asking whether they were really liberated from apartheidFor many people, this election was an opportunity for a new beginning, comparable to the transition to democracy a generation ago.

During the election, the slogan “2024 is our 1994” circulated on social media and election posters, especially among young South Africans.

The landmark election ended the dominance of a party that led the fight against colonialism that reshaped Africa in the second half of the 20th century. The party's banning by the racist apartheid government drove many of its leaders into exile around the world. Stories of the torture and hardship these party members endured made many of them heroes in the eyes of South Africa and the world – a reputation that kept many voters who grew up under apartheid loyal to the party.

But this loyalty waned as the material situation of many South Africans did not noticeably improve under decades of ANC leadership – while many party leaders amassed enormous wealth. Younger South Africans The electorate is increasingly made up of people who have not lived under white rule. They are less interested in the aura of the party than in its performance in government.

Some of South Africa's neighbouring countries are ruled by former liberation movements that are close allies of the ANC and are also seeing declining voter support. The outcome of South Africa's election could herald the demise of other liberation parties, analysts say.

Mavuso Msimang, a long-time ANC member, said that as he drove past the long queues outside polling stations on election day, he feared the party might be punished for failing to provide basic services such as electricity.

“I said to myself, 'You know, these people are not lining up to thank the ANC for taking away the lights,'” he said. “It was clear that these people were not going to vote for us.”