Johannesburg, South Africa – Following its crushing defeat in last week's elections, South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) has begun closed-door negotiations with its political opponents to form a coalition government.

On Sunday, the Election Commission (IEC) announced that Elections in South Africa were “free and fair,” but no party was able to gain an absolute majority. The final election results confirmed the decline in support for the ANC to just over 40 percent of the vote – far less than the absolute majority it held for the past 30 years after the end of apartheid.

The parties have a two-week deadline to elect a president, and analysts say the ANC will likely have to give in to a number of demands to persuade other parties to form a coalition government.

The ANC held a meeting of its national leaders on Saturday where they discussed coalition forms and the possibility of forming a “government of national unity.” Such an arrangement would be reminiscent of the era of former President Nelson Mandela, who led a government of national unity from 1994 to 1997. Mandela was the president, with FW De Klerk, the last apartheid prime minister, as his deputy. Leaders of the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) were part of the cabinet.

But political analyst Kagiso “TK” Pooe told Al Jazeera that a national unity government could only work if it was based on clear goals that all parties could agree on.

“The key objectives will be to recover the South African economy and promote employment,” he said. “Secondly, the problem of institutional corruption and inefficiency must be addressed.” Without the will to commit to such objectives, “the coalition will always be on the brink of failure and the consequences,” he said.

A weakened ANC

In addition to its national setbacks, the ANC also lost its majority in three provinces it currently governs: KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and the Northern Cape. It suffered its worst blow in KwaZulu-Natal, where former President Jacob Zuma's MK party gained votes.

The official opposition party, the centre-right Democratic Alliance, was able to increase its share of the vote slightly, receiving 21.8 percent of the vote. The left-wing Economic Freedom Fights (EFF) saw its support drop to 9.5 percent of the vote.

Former President Jacob Zuma and his Mkhonto we Sizwe Party (MK Party) were the biggest winners in the election. The party, which was only founded at the end of 2023, ran for the first time and secured third place with 14.6 percent of the vote. It is now the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma's home province.

Against this background, the ANC said on Sunday that it had begun exploratory talks with other political parties to deal with the consequences of its rapid decline in support.

“The ANC is committed to forming a government that reflects the will of the people. One that is stable and can govern effectively,” ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula said at a press conference.

He called for calm and committed the ANC to act responsibly in the face of widespread insecurity.

“South Africa's voters have shown that they expect the politicians of this country to work together in the interests of all. We will continue to act responsibly, progressively and at all times in the interests of the people of South Africa,” he said. “We will continue to uphold the rule of law and call on all South Africans to respect the laws, rules and regulations that govern the conduct of elections.”

An ANC-DA alliance?

Several high-level ANC meetings are planned for this week to work out its coalition plans.

One possibility would be to make a deal with the prosecutor. traditionally his main opponentA coalition of South Africa's largest and most established parties could be more stable than partnerships with newer, more radical groups, say many analysts. Both parties are also more economically conservative than the MK Party and the EFF, which advocate left-leaning policies.

The DA announced on Sunday that it would enter into talks with the ANC to prevent what some called a “doomsday coalition” between the ANC, EFF and MK Party.

“I am also the father of three young daughters. And like millions of other South Africans, I do not want them to grow up in a country ruled by a party like MK, which wants to abolish the constitution for which so many fought and died, which wants to undermine the judiciary and which plans to expropriate all private property and nationalise the Reserve Bank,” DA leader John Steenhuisen said in a briefing. “These are the things that are in the manifestos of the EFF and MK.”

The DA has set up a high-level team to lead the talks with the ANC.

However, it will not be easy to form an ANC-DA coalition.

Political analyst Lukhona Mnguni said the ANC and DA electorates were “fundamentally opposed”.

“If they position the government as a quasi-government of national unity, it may have a chance to work,” he said.

Mnguni said business leaders had already touted an ANC-DA coalition as a more stable option for the country in 2018.

“Both parties are conservative when it comes to making bold and daring decisions on economic policy. They may disagree on other issues such as foreign policy, which will be difficult to negotiate,” he said.

The EFF – which is calling for the expropriation of white farmers' land without compensation – said it was open to an agreement with the ANC. “We want to work with the ANC because the ANC is not arrogant when it makes compromises,” EFF party leader Julius Malema told journalists at the weekend.

However, business leaders and investors have expressed scepticism about a possible coalition between the ANC and the EFF, given the EFF's left-wing positions.

“We will not support a government that promotes policies of massive economic destruction,” Busisiwe Mavuso, CEO of Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA), told local media.

The IFP, the country's fifth-largest party, has said it is also open to talks with the ANC.

Meanwhile, the MK declared that it was open to talks with the ANC – but not with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa responsible.

The MK party also claimed that the election was rigged, even though it emerged as the biggest winner in the polls.

The party, which calls for the abolition of the supremacy of the South African constitution and its replacement with “unrestricted parliamentary sovereignty”, also threatened violence on Sunday due to the election results.

In his weekly newsletter on Monday morning, Ramaphosa rejected these threats.

“As we as political parties work to find our way across the divide in the coming weeks and months, we should demonstrate through both our actions and our words that we hold the Constitution and the rule of law to be paramount,” he wrote. “Let us remember that any authority, any power entrusted to us must be used for the benefit of the South African people.”

“Now more than ever, we must put aside our differences and work together for the common good,” he said.

But the election result has not only revealed the deep political divides between the South African parties, it could also lead to internal criticism within the ANC, says Pooe.

“I think the ANC has suffered a severe blow. I have no doubt that they are shocked. They are disappointed,” he said. “The next [ANC] The meeting of the National Executive Committee will be a very exciting debriefing of this election, which can decide the success or failure of the party.”