Manila, Philippines – Fighting between the Philippine military and communist rebels continues despite an agreement to resume peace talks this month to end the world’s longest-running armed communist insurgency.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. surprised many when he signed off his government in November announced an agreement with the National Democratic Front (NDF), the rebels’ political wing, to resume peace talks that his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte ended shortly after taking office.

In the agreementIn the agreement, signed in Oslo after months of secret negotiations with the support of the Norwegian government, both parties acknowledged “the deep-rooted socio-economic and political grievances” at the heart of the conflict and agreed on reforms.

Since then, however, contradictory statements, public disputes and ongoing armed clashes between the military and the New People’s Army (NPA), the Communist Party’s armed wing, have dampened hopes for an agreement.

Many in the military apparatus – and particularly within the government’s controversial anti-communist task force – still want to “end the armed conflict through physical extermination.” [NPA] forces,” Satur Ocampo, founder of the left-wing party-list Bayan Muna, told Al Jazeera.

The Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) said late last year it remained focused on “waging a full-scale and intensive guerrilla war” and rebuilding the NPA force.

The Philippine government was “very surprised and disappointed” by the statement, National Security Council spokesman Jonathan Malaya told reporters earlier this month.

However, the military has also continued its armed operations against the NPA, including airstrikes on the southern island of Mindanao in December that killed nine suspected rebels.

Obstacles to Peace

The Philippine government and the NPA have been locked in a conflict for more than 50 years that has killed more than 40,000 people. It reached its peak in the 1980s, during the martial law rule of Marcos’ father, dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr.

Over the years there have been repeated announcements of peace talks, which then failed.

Marcos Jr.’s surprise move to restart negotiations is consistent with the military’s stated ambition to shift its focus from domestic conflicts to “external or territorial defense,” military chief Romeo Brawner Jr. told reporters in November.

The Philippines have moved closer to the USA due to a series of conflicts with Chinese ships in the disputed South China Sea, which Beijing claims almost entirely as its own despite a ruling by an international tribunal in 2016.

When Marcos took office in June 2022, he initially rejected peace talks. However, he may be growing weary after witnessing a “resurgence of armed fighting” in areas the military has reportedly cleared, Ocampo said.

“[Marcos] “I may doubt the security forces’ assurance that they can finish off the CPP-NPA within its term,” which ends in 2028, Ocampo said. “It opens up the possibility of seeking a negotiated solution.” Under Philippine law, presidents can only serve one term in office.

The November communiqué sparked optimism, among other things, because of its explicit wording in which both parties were committed to pursuing “socio-economic and political reforms for a just and lasting peace.”

Since the 1980s, numerous attempts at agricultural land reform in the Philippines have failed. Many rural farmers are destitute and landless, while families retain oligarchic control over the land they inherited from colonial rule in Spain and the United States.

However, disagreements quickly emerged over how reforms should be initiated.

The NDF wanted to reinstate a land distribution agreement that had been forged during Duterte-era talks.

But the office of presidential peace adviser Carlito Galvez Jr., who is leading the negotiations, insisted that the talks were “new” and a “reset,” raising concerns in the NDF that he wanted to abandon previous agreements.

Instead, Galvez “proposed specific programs that can be implemented by the government and big business,” Ocampo said. “There is nothing that touches on deep socio-economic reforms.”

National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano has also opposed removing the CPP-NPA from the country’s list of “terrorist” organizations and releasing currently imprisoned peace negotiators – positions that appear hopeless for the communist side.

“It is vital that Marcos rescinds previous proclamations…designating the NDF as terrorists,” a CPP spokesperson told Al Jazeera. “However, Marcos’ officials… have repeatedly expressed opposition to these measures.”

Julie de Lima, interim chair of the NDF negotiating panel, told Al Jazeera her group was negotiating the release of consultants needed for the forgery [promised] Agreements on socio-economic reforms.

“Without that it will be very difficult,” she said. “We still have cautious optimism that these discussions can continue.” [but] There are problems that need to be solved.”

Ongoing conflict

Last month, Marcos claimed that there were no active NPA fronts in December. The government says fewer than 1,500 NPA rebels remain, although the CPP and NPA say the number is higher.

The CPP spokesman told Al Jazeera that neither side is currently seeking a common ceasefire.

De Lima, the NDF negotiator, said the government had not approached her body since the November communiqué and that it was “disheartening” that the peace office headed by Galvez had decided to “negotiate publicly,” citing the Minister’s plans to work with large companies to carry out socio-economic reforms.

Galvez did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

“Both sides still don’t trust each other,” said Georgi Englebrecht, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, who noted that many observers were more “cautious” than optimistic.

“But the fact that we are at this stage is already progress,” he said. “Now both sides must show their commitment and genuine intentions.”

The first step is to set an agenda and find realistic goals to work toward before talking about a ceasefire or the release of the NDF’s negotiators, said Miriam Coronel-Ferrer, a peace negotiator who oversees the government’s efforts signing of an agreement peace treaty with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front a decade ago.

The motivation is still great on both sides. Communist forces have been hit by worsening climate disasters, such as typhoons that hit northern Cagayan province in recent years, causing record flooding.

Coronel-Ferrer believes the NPA has recognized that disasters make it more difficult to continue operations and win local support in rural mountain strongholds. “You’re up in the mountains, there’s a landslide, there’s nothing to eat for the whole community,” she said.

The government also needs to allay fears that this is the case controversial anti-terrorism lawCoronel-Ferrer added that the law passed in 2020 could still be used to target current or former communist rebels.

In recent months, the anti-communist task force has allegedly worked with the Philippine military to kidnap activists Jhed Tamano and Jonila Castro, who told Al Jazeera that this was the case forced to falsely surrender as communist rebels.

It could come down to which voices in the government and military are the most persistent. Marcos “could be more influenced by the louder voices” currently calling for an end to the conflict, Coronel-Ferrer said. “He doesn’t want to be another Marcos murderer or Marcos fascist.”

However, after decades of conflict, the more aggressive forces may still be seeking that elusive military victory.

“They feel like they’re already winning. “So why should they miss this?” said Coronel-Ferrer. “But they’ll never really eradicate them.”