Finland, Europe’s easternmost liberal democracy and a new NATO member, is preparing for a crucial presidential election.

The Nordic country controls the European Union’s longest border with Russia and is one of the few EU members to have fought a war with Russia.

His position on Ukraine was clear and consistent against Russia’s invasion and he was a leading supplier of weapons and training to the Ukrainian military.

Finland is also one of the most successful economies in the world. Its population of 5.5 million generates a gross domestic product (GDP) of $283 billion and earns just under $51,000 per capita. This makes it one of the two dozen countries in the world that are most represented.

Its border geography, liberal democratic values, economic health and support for Ukraine make the northern European country a model of Western positions and social and institutional strength on the border with Russia.

Presidential elections on Sunday and a possible second round on February 11 will decide who succeeds Sauli Niinisto, a conservative who served two six-year terms.

Why is the presidency important?

The Prime Minister of Finland heads the executive branch, but the President of Finland remains directly responsible for defense and foreign policy, as set out in Sections 58 and 93 of the Constitution.

The president is the commander in chief of the military and decides on military appointments.

It is the president who attends NATO summits and declares war and peace. In their foreign policy role, presidents also address the United Nations and meet with foreign leaders.

The President works with relevant ministers and Parliament to ratify Finland’s international treaties, meaning that the institution of the presidency is not merely ceremonial.

His portfolio concerns matters governing Finland’s relations with the rest of the world.

Why is this particular election important?

The foreign and defense aspects of the presidency will become even more important during a major changing of the guard.

The outgoing Niinisto is not allowed to run for a third term under the constitution, so Finns must elect their first new head of state in 12 years. While this is unlikely to represent a radical shift in foreign and defense policy, the next president will have to decide on some key issues.

Ukraine is interested in acquiring the aging Finnish F-18 Hornet fighter jet once the Finnish Air Force takes possession of its new F-35s. There is an ongoing debate about whether Finland can afford to let her go.

Former Prime Minister Sanna Marin got into trouble for suggesting that Finland might deliver the planes at a time when its F-35s had not yet been delivered and integrated into the air force.

The presidency is also changing due to the Russian war in Ukraine.

“Previously his main task was bilateral relations with Russia, but now the position is changing because there is not much left of these relations. So the question is: How is the presidency changing? Does [the president] now become NATO president? And the consensus seems to be yes,” Minna Alander, a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, told Al Jazeera.

The elections in Finland could also be an opportunity to gauge the direction in which European politics is heading ahead of European Parliament elections due to take place across the continent in June.

In last year’s general election, Finns ousted the Social Democrat-led government, which had pushed for increased spending on health and education, in favor of a center-right government that favored fiscal discipline and more nuclear energy.

How does the system work and who are the front runners?

To claim victory and take office on February 1, a candidate must receive more than half of the valid votes cast on Sunday.

If no one achieves this majority, a runoff election between the two top candidates will take place on February 11th. The winner would take office on March 1. The early voting began on January 17th.

Recent opinion polls put former prime minister and center-right National Coalition Party candidate Alexander Stubb in the lead with 24 percent of the vote, followed by former foreign minister and Green Party candidate Petri Haavisto with 21 percent. They lead a field of nine candidates representing all major parties.

Stubb’s popularity is underscored by his large campaign funds, which are made up of donations and Stubb’s party, corporations and foundations.

A political scientist and currently director of the European University Institute in Florence, Stubb has been a liberal voice in the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) for two decades in European and national offices.

As a candidate for the EPP presidency in 2018 (which went to the German Manfred Weber) and for the presidency of the European Commission in 2019 (which went to the German Ursula von der Leyen), he supported gender equality and the rule of law.

He spoke out against illiberalism in the EPP and proposed the suspension of Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party in Hungary as a member of the group because of its Eurosceptic stance, suppression of free media and manipulation of the judiciary. The EPP, he said, is a “pro-European” party and should adopt a “zero tolerance” position towards illiberalism.

In an interview in 2018, Stubb said he was running for Commission president because he believed that European values ​​such as human rights, equality, tolerance, the rule of law and liberal democracy were “under threat from outside the Union at this particular moment.” from the union and perhaps also from the EPP.”

Stubb was a member of the European Parliament from 2004 to 2008, foreign minister from 2008 to 2011, European minister from 2011 to 2014 and prime minister from 2014 to 2015.

His National Coalition Party lost its top spot in the April 2015 elections. Stubb was finance minister until 2016, when he lost the party leadership to Petteri Orpo.

Why has Finland recently close its borders with Russia?

As foreign minister in Marin’s cabinet in September 2022, Green Party hopeful Pekka Haavisto led a reform restricting visas for Russian tourists to prevent Finland from becoming a transit country for Russians fleeing conscription.

“There is no moral or ethical basis for Russian tourism to continue as normal. We have raised this issue many times in the EU,” said Haavisto.

The resulting reform allowed Finland to close its borders with Russia, which became particularly popular late last year when Russia sent asylum seekers to the Finnish border, overwhelming its asylum system and creating an immigration emergency that put the government under pressure would put.

“Even the candidates from the left party do not criticize the decision to close the border and keep it closed,” said Alander. “Here, too, there is consensus. … Since the first season in 2015-16 [refugee] Given the border crisis, it became clear that there was a gap in Finnish border legislation.”

In November, opinion polls showed Haavisto leading Stubb by seven points.

He has tried to take over the presidency twice before, in 2012 and 2018, losing both times to Sauli Niinisto.