How attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi rebels are crimping global trade

How attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi rebels are crimping global trade



LONDON (AP) — Attacks on commercial ships by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have redirected trade that normally flows through the key corridor for consumer goods and energy supplies, a shift that is delaying shipments and increasing transportation costs.

The impact hit home Friday when electric car maker Tesla said it would have to close its factory outside Berlin from Jan. 29 to Feb. 11 due to supply chain delays, and when U.S.-led airstrikes hit what the Marine Houthi missiles and missiles were drone launch sites in Yemen.

Oil, natural gas, grain and everything from toys to electronics are typically transported through the waterway between Africa and the Arabian Peninsula en route to the Suez Canal, where 12% of world trade typically passes.

Some of the world’s largest container shipping companies and oil giant BP are sending ships on longer voyages around Africa that bypass the Red Sea. In response to the increasing impact on global trade, the United States and a host of other nations have created a new ship protection force.

Here’s what you should know about the impact of the attacks on global shipping:

WHY ARE HOUTHIS ATTACKING SHIPS?

The Houthis are Iranian-backed rebels who captured most of northern Yemen and the country’s capital Sanaa in 2014. The following year, a Saudi-led coalition entered the conflict to restore Yemen’s internationally recognized government to power.

The Houthis have sporadically attacked ships in the region, but attacks have increased since the Israel-Hamas war began on October 7. They have used drones and anti-ship missiles to attack ships and, in one case, used a helicopter to board and seize an Israeli ship and its crew.

They have threatened to attack any ship they believe is heading to or coming from Israel. This has now apparently spread to every ship, with container ships and oil tankers flying the flags of countries such as Norway and Liberia being attacked or drawing rocket fire.

WHY IS THE RED SEA IMPORTANT?

The Red Sea has the Suez Canal at its northern end and the narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait at its southern end, which flows into the Gulf of Aden. It is a busy waterway with ships passing through the Suez Canal to carry goods between Asia and Europe and beyond.

In fact, 40% of Asia-Europe trade typically passes through the region, including a large amount of oil and diesel fuel destined for import-dependent Europe. The same goes for food like palm oil and grains and everything else that comes on container ships, which makes up the majority of the world’s manufactured products.

In total, about 30% of global container traffic and more than 1 million barrels of crude oil per day typically pass through the Suez Canal, according to global freight booking platform Freightos Group.

How do Houthi attacks affect trade?

Major container shipping companies, including Maersk, are avoiding the Red Sea and sending their ships around Africa and the Cape of Good Hope. This adds one to two weeks to travel time and increases costs for shipping, fuel and more.

At least 90% of the container ships that used to sail through the Suez Canal are now being rerouted around the tip of Africa, said Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at Drewry, a maritime research consultancy.

According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany, the cost of transporting a standard 40-foot container from China to northern Europe has risen from $1,500 to $4,000. But that’s still a far cry from the $14,000 seen during the pandemic.

The delays contributed to a 1.3% decline in global trade in December, due to goods getting stuck on ships and not being unloaded at port.

“There will be an initial shock and there may be initial parts shortages that will potentially slow production,” Heaney said.

But “pretty soon” the system will “adjust to the new reality of circumnavigating the Cape” and producers will need to prepare for and plan for longer wait times, Heaney said.

He assumes that the crisis will last for months, but that shipping has more capacity – unlike during the pandemic – and the lessons from this period mean that companies have more inventory. In addition, shipping costs only make up a tiny fraction of the value of the goods.

“Appreciable consequences for consumer prices in Europe are hardly to be expected, since the share of freight costs in the value of high-priced goods such as consumer electronics is only a fraction of a percent,” said Julian Hinz, head of the Trade Policy Research Center in Kiel.

However, analysts at JP Morgan say the rise in costs could slow the recent decline in inflation: “While these cost increases come from low levels, they will reinforce the easing of recent deflationary dynamics in commodity prices.”

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OIL PRICES?

Crude oil prices rose about 4% after the U.S.-led airstrikes. International benchmark Brent crude traded at about $78 a barrel on Friday, still below the level of about $84 on the eve of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7.

“Although this puts upward pressure on global oil prices, it is unlikely for now to represent a serious shock to energy supplies,” tweeted Simone Tagliapietra, an energy analyst at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels.

That could change if conflicts between Hamas, Israel and Houthis escalate and lead to unrest in the Strait of Hormuz at the southern end of the Persian Gulf, he said.

“That would have a massive impact on global energy markets,” Tagliapietra said.

And White House spokesman Andrew Bates said: “We are monitoring conditions” for oil prices.

“Let me be clear,” Bates said. “It is the Houthis who are endangering freedom of navigation on one of the world’s most important waterways.”

How does the world react?

The U.S. is leading a security initiative to protect ships in the Red Sea that includes the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain. The Houthis have no navy to establish a barrier and have so far relied on threatening fire and only one helicopter attack.

At least five Houthi soldiers were killed and six wounded in Friday’s attacks, the rebels said, without elaborating on the target. It was unclear how much damage was caused by the US strikes, although the Houthis said at least five sites, including airfields, were targeted.

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Associated Press writers Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Tara Copp, Lolita C. Baldor and Chris Megerian in Washington contributed.



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