PARIS, France – This year will be the hottest in history after an “exceptional” November became the sixth straight record month, Europe’s climate monitor said on Wednesday, increasing pressure on COP28 talks to take action on climate change.

November broke the previous heat record set in November and pushed the global average temperature to 1.46 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in 2023, the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said.

There have been warnings that this year could take over the title of hottest year from 2016 – particularly after records plummeted in September and October – but this is the first time this has been confirmed.

There were also two days in November when it was 2°C warmer than pre-industrial values. Not a single day like this had ever been recorded.

Samantha Burgess, deputy head of the Copernicus service, said 2023 had “now had six record-breaking months and two record-breaking seasons”.

“Exceptional November global temperatures, including two days warmer than 2°C above pre-industrial levels.” [levels]“That means 2023 will be the warmest year on record,” she said.

Scientists say data from ice cores, tree rings and the like suggest this year could be the warmest in more than 100,000 years.

Phase out or dismantle?

The record announcement comes as negotiators from nearly 200 countries at COP28 talks in Dubai debate the text of a final draft deal that responds to a damning review of progress in limiting warming.

A crucial aspect is the fate of oil, gas and coal – the main causes of human-caused warming of the planet.

Talks in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates have already discussed whether to agree to a “phase-out” or “phase-out” of fossil fuels.

But a new set that commits to an “orderly and equitable” phase-out of fossil fuels could be a consensus candidate, giving countries different timelines for reducing emissions depending on their level of development and dependence on hydrocarbons.

But there is another possibility: Fossil fuels are not mentioned at all, reflecting opposition from countries like Saudi Arabia and China, according to several observers who attended the closed meetings.

Another draft paragraph calling for a “rapid phase-out of unabated coal-fired power generation this decade” also faced opposition from China, South Africa and Vietnam, the observers said.

A new version of the draft text is expected on Wednesday morning, which will then be discussed at the talks scheduled to end on December 12th.

“The temperature will continue to rise”

Meanwhile, 2023 saw a series of devastating extreme weather events linked to climate change, even as CO2 emissions continue to rise worldwide.

According to Copernicus, whose records date back to 1940, the first 11 months of 2023 were 0.13°C hotter than 2016, the warmest year before.

Global temperatures in the second half of this year are believed to have been partly caused by the El Niño weather pattern, which has caused fewer “anomalies” so far in 2023 than in 2015-2016, the Copernicus service said.

September to November, the three months that mark autumn in the Northern Hemisphere, were, according to Copernicus, “by a wide margin” the hottest on record.

November alone was 1.75°C warmer than pre-industrial levels – and marked a significant increase of 0.85°C compared to the period 1991-2020, Copernicus said.

Such figures could suggest that the world is coming worryingly close to warming by 1.5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times, a key threshold in the Paris climate agreement.

However, to actually exceed the Paris limit, global temperatures would have to remain above 1.5°C for decades.

“As long as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, we cannot expect any different results,” said Copernicus boss Carlo Buontempo.

“The temperature will continue to rise and with it the impact of heatwaves and droughts,” he added.

Also on Wednesday, researchers warned of 26 “tipping points” on Earth, such as melting ice sheets, that could potentially trigger a domino effect of irreversible catastrophes across the planet.