New Hampshire — the next stop on the Republican primary calendar — is known as the “Granite State,” named for the rock from which some of its mightiest peaks and mountains emerge.

For former United Nations envoy For Nikki Haley, however, the Granite State could be the cliff from which her presidential ambitions fall.

Tucked away in snow-covered New England, a region in the northeastern United States, New Hampshire offers a unique opportunity Haley. Its conservative voters lean more moderate, making the state’s Jan. 23 primary a beacon for Republican front-runner Donald Trump’s rivals.

Haley could potentially win big in New Hampshire: A Opinion poll The study released Tuesday by the American Research Group showed she has 33 percent support among the state’s Republican voters, just behind Trump’s 37 percent.

A victory in the state could give her campaign the validation she has been longing for and show that the former UN envoy can actually be a serious competitor against Trump.

“Given the expectations she has created, Haley really needs to either win or be extremely close to Trump,” said Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, a Washington-based think tank.

“If she doesn’t get into single digits, ideally within five points, her campaign is effectively over.”

James Davis, a Republican strategist and founder of marketing firm Touchdown Strategies, added that Haley’s prospects in the 2024 presidential race depend on Tuesday’s primary.

“Winning in New Hampshire is within her reach – and that’s exactly what she must do.”

“New Hampshire voters are different.”

Even a win in New Hampshire would still represent an uphill battle against Trump, who continues to defeat Haley and his fellow Republicans Ron DeSantis in national surveys.

Trump’s huge lead was confirmed Iowa caucusesthe first event in a season of primaries and caucuses that will ultimately decide which candidate receives the Republican nomination for president.

Even before the Iowa caucuses ended, the media confirmed that Trump would win. to set a record for the narrow victory with 51 percent of the vote. In the so-called “race for second place,” Haley received 19 percent support, behind Florida Gov. DeSantis, who secured 21 percent.

Still, Haley’s prospects may not be as bad as they seem. Davis explained that DeSantis “basically focused his campaign on Iowa,” while Haley invested “very little” in the state.

That means Haley’s “neck-and-neck” finish with DeSantis in Iowa could actually be a sign of momentum for her campaign moving forward, Davis said.

Several other factors could give Haley a boost as she heads to New Hampshire. Robert Boatright, a political science professor and elections expert at Clark University, said the most important thing is the simplest: New Hampshire is not Iowa.

Considered a “purple state” in an otherwise Democrat-dominated region, New Hampshire has a notable Republican base, not to mention a libertarian streak.

The elections have therefore resulted in a mixed cast of political figures: the governor is a Republican and the state legislature is controlled by Republicans, but his representatives and senators in the US Congress are all Democrats.

“New Hampshire voters are different from Iowa voters in many ways,” Boatright said. “It’s a wealthier state. It is a less religious state. New Hampshire Republicans are more like the old Republican Party.”

That’s largely why Trump’s Republican critics have singled out New Hampshire as a frontrunner in this election cycle. One former candidate, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, previously focused his campaign almost exclusively on the state withdraw from the Republican race on January 10th.

Unlike Christie, Haley has remained more reserved in her criticism of Trump, a former president with a loyal following. She served in his administration from 2017 to 2018.

However, she has intensified her attacks on Trump’s invasion of New Hampshire, particularly targeting the 77-year-old’s age and the “chaos” of his leadership.

Trump also attacked Haley. He recently promoted a conspiracy theory that Haley — a South Carolina native of Native American ancestry — was born outside the United States, falsely implying that she was ineligible for president.

Meanwhile, DeSantis is expected to remain a non-influencer in New Hampshire, where his campaign failed to reach voters. Instead, he’s more focused on South Carolina, Haley’s home state, which is scheduled to hold the Republican primary in late February.

Haley is also expected to benefit from the format of the vote itself. Iowa has caucuses where party members attend meetings across the state to debate and then select a candidate.

But New Hampshire will instead organize a primary, asking voters to cast just one ballot, just as they would in a general election.

Olsen of the Ethics and Public Policy Center said this is an advantage for Haley. Typically, congregations “attract true believers solely because of their time commitment.”

In a primary, however, “all you have to do is show up and donate maybe 15 minutes of your time, rather than three hours of your time.” And that always helps the candidate who is less enamored with the base.”

Boatright and Davis also said low voter turnout in Iowa makes the Iowa caucuses a less reliable indicator of Republican campaign success. Only about 108,000 Iowans participated this year, or 14 percent of registered Republicans in the state.

“Iowa caucus-goers are not necessarily representative of the state or even Republican voters within the state,” Boatright said.

Davis reiterated that point: “Iowa tends to be a field narrower rather than a kingmaker in terms of its process.”

The elephant in the room

Experts say the early contests in the US primary season are more about that build a narrative as winning delegates who ultimately vote to confirm the party’s nominee at a national convention.

New Hampshire is just the first primary race in a series that includes every state in the United States. But a strong showing in the state can boost a campaign and send a signal of vitality ahead of other votes.

But Boatright wonders whether Haley can make a case for the longevity of her campaign, especially given that she faces upcoming primaries that may be more pro-Trump.

“It still looks like there’s no real compelling proposition that it can be competitive at the national level,” he said.

“I think she would really have to do exceptionally well in New Hampshire to change that story.”

Meanwhile, a stunning Trump victory in New Hampshire could increase pressure on Haley and DeSantis to drop out of the race “and not prolong it for the party,” Davis said.

Still, he noted that there is one big “star” in this year’s primary season: Trump’s age and multiple criminal charges could potentially derail his campaign.

“We have two septuagenarian leaders with us [President Joe] Biden and Trump, and health is always a question,” Davis said. “Then Trump has all the legal proceedings against him that he has to go through. Who knows where it all ends?”

“There’s really never been a race like this before and so things could change pretty quickly.”