“This was the second year running that November’s growth performance eclipsed that of December, with this growth coming off a high 2024 base. Further, December’s relative higher trading density gap has diminished significantly since 2023,” says Belinda Clur, managing director of Clur International, which produces the index.

The index is derived from the Clur Collective, South Africa’s early-warning performance, strategy, analysis and benchmarking platform built exclusively for shopping centres, to optimise returns.

This endorsed industry standard and economic indicator covers over 5.4 million square metres of space across listed and unlisted property funds in South Africa and Namibia.

Clur says stronger November festive season growth was one aspect of the 2025 retail property trading story.

“It also speaks of overall resilience, trading momentum that built over the year with a drop-off in the last two months, ongoing Western Cape strength and a consumer desire for rawness, grit and creativity.”

Clur says consumer culture is becoming increasingly sophisticated as it simplifies, and being literate in this is critical in guiding successful shopping centre and business strategies of the future.

She says November shoppers seemed to prefer super regional and regional centres, with pressurised consumers opting for destination shopping while targeting the special offers in Black Friday month.

In contrast, December indicated a more subdued festive spend and stronger convenience shopping growth.

“Whilst the combined November and December festive season showed positive trading density growth across the board, this contracted against 2024 and was outdone by expansionary growth shown over the rest of the year (January to October). This highlights the retail growth drop-off since November 2025.”

It’s in the numbers

The November ‘25 national Clur Index for All Centres closed with annualised trading density y/y% growth of 4.4%, under-performing the full year Clur Index by -0.6% and out-performing Nov ’25 CPI by 0.9%.

Highest y/y% growth was shown by super-regional centres at 6.2%, and regional centres at 4.0%. The December index had annualised trading density y/y% growth at 2.7%, underperforming the full year Clur Index by -2.2% and under-performing Dec ’25 CPI by -0.9%.

Highest y/y% growth was shown by community and smaller centres at 4.1%, and small regional centres at 3.5%.

“What was also significant was that Gauteng, the most populous province, was the top November performer in trading density growth of the three key provinces, outdoing the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. The Western Cape tends to occupy top spot, but for November it trailed Gauteng,” Clur says.

Gauteng had y/y% annualised trading density growth of 5.3% for November, followed by the Western Cape at 4.9%, and KwaZulu-Natal at 3.5%. For the combined November and December season the Western Cape was the top performer, with y/y% annualised trading density growth of 4.0%. Gauteng had the second highest y/y growth rate of 3.8%. KwaZulu-Natal showed positive y/y growth of 2.7%.

For the full year the Western Cape had y/y% annualised trading density growth of 5.7%, outperforming 2025’s CPI by 2.5%. Gauteng was next with growth of 5.2%. KwaZulu-Natal had positive y/y growth of 3.6%, showing the highest growth expansion of 1.6% relative to June’25.

This meant annualised trading density in the Western Cape of R49,682/sqm, in KwaZulu Natal of 44,858/sqm and in Gauteng of R41,214/sqm for the full 2025 year.

For November and December combined, the Western Cape’s annualised trading density was R66,072/sqm, with KwaZulu-Natal at R62,067/sqm and Gauteng at R54,926/sqm.

For November, the Western Cape had an annualised trading density of R56,370/sqm, with KwaZulu-Natal at R50,909/sqm and Gauteng at R47,823/sqm. The December results showed the Western Cape at R75,633/sqm, KwaZulu-Natal at R73,329/sqm, and Gauteng at R62,040/sqm.

The November and December combined national Clur Index for All Centres closed with annualised trading density y/y% growth of 3.4%, under-performing the full year Clur Index by -1.6% and contracting by -2.0% relative to 2024. Highest y/y% growth was shown by super-regional centres at 4.2%, followed by community and smaller centres at 3.6%.

For the rest of the year (January to October) the index for all centres had annualised trading density y/y% growth at 5.5%, outperforming the full year Clur Index by 0.5% and expanding by 3.0% relative to 2024. Highest y/y% growth was achieved by community and smaller centres at 6.2%, followed by regional centres at 6.1%.

The full 2025 national Clur Index for All Centres showed annualised trading density y/y% growth of 5.0%, outperforming 2025’s CPI by 1.8%. Highest y/y% growth was by community and smaller centres at 5.5%, followed by regional centres at 5.3%. Super-regional centres had the highest expansion in growth versus Jun ’25 of 1.0%, followed by regional centres at 0.3%. Only community and smaller centres contracted by -0.1% against Jun ’25, with the All Centres Index expanding by 0.4% for the same period.

Clur says the two size extremes of super-regional centres and community and smaller centres continue to lead trading density volume levels.

For the full 2025 all centres index, annualised trading density for the year was R42,780/sqm, led by super-regional centres at R52,524/sqm, and community and smaller centres at R48,441/sqm. For the combined festive season all centres index, annualised trading density was R57,440/sqm, with super-regional centres on top with R74,041/sqm, followed by community and smaller centres at R60,298/sqm.

For the full 2025 year, the Western Cape had an annualised trading density of R49,682/sqm, KwaZulu Natal was next at R44,858/sqm, and Gauteng at R41,214/sqm.

On the rental front, Clur says the full year 2025 national Clur Index for the Base Rent to Sales ratio closed at 6.6%, indicating the ongoing entrenchment of stable and controlled market risk since mid-2024.

The Dec ‘25 national Clur Index for Base Rent for All Centres showed y/y% growth of 5.4%, outperforming Dec 25’s CPI by 1.8%. Highest y/y% growth was shown by small regional centres at 5.7%, followed by super-regional centres at 5.4%.

The Western Cape led the three key provinces, with y/y% base rental growth of 6.7%, outperforming 2025’s CPI by 3.1%. KwaZulu-Natal had the second highest y/y growth rate of 5.2%. Gauteng showed positive y/y growth of 4.9%.

In rand terms, the national index closed at a level of R245.28/sqm. Highest rentals were shown by super-regional centres, at R330.74/sqm, and regional centres at R240.09/sqm. The Western Cape had a base rental level of R271.36/sqm, with KwaZulu-Natal at R253.54/sqm. Gauteng came in at R244.15/sqm.

A new consumer connection point

Clur says that against the backdrop of pressure on consumers, and the retail drop-off, the Belief Economy, which was underpinned by a shift away from the often-superficial Attention Economy, has evolved.

“It is now signalling a new consumer connection point. Rawness, grit and creativity are new core values that resonate with consumers, seemingly in rebellion against overly polished, characterless and easily mass-produced AI outputs.

“These values, as a combined consumer culture concept, reflect in people rejecting slick perfection and being drawn to tactile unfiltered, more natural imperfect experiences that are less staged. They also relate to showing things as they are, without layering, supporting honesty, character and emotional clarity. Consumers want sensory engagement and provocation through texture, art, appealing visuals, engaging experiences and meaningful community activities.”

Clur says this is evidenced in growing consumer tastes for minimally processed, natural food products as well as a preference for distressed fabrics, unfinished materials and visible craftsmanship in design and fashion.

“The rise of unfiltered social media content and candid media scenes further supports this, along with a wellness and lifestyle emphasis on raw emotions, self-expression, mental health, digital detox and a shift to ongoing body maintenance over performance.

“Strongly linked to this is the need to protect one’s unique voice and perspective, as well as personal re-invention. This is evidenced through increased emphasis on storytelling, adult learners and travel interest.”