It appears as though these shifts are converging in 2026, creating both pressure points and significant opportunities for industries that sit at the centre of the country’s development ambitions.

Across these sectors, one theme is consistent: regulatory clarity, credible compliance pathways and early legal foresight will determine which projects move ahead and which fall behind. The legal landscape is shifting, and those who understand the direction of travel will be best positioned to steer the future rather than react to it.

Below, we outline the mega-trends, macro-trends and micro-trends that we believe will guide the sector in the years ahead.

Mega trends: Structural shifts that will set the pace

Beneficiation: A renewed opportunity, but only with the right tools

South Africa has long understood that exporting raw minerals limits the value retained in the local economy. This perspective was even reiterated at the B20 and G20 Summit last year.

This global dialogue and recent policy decisions show renewed momentum behind beneficiation as a strategic growth lever. By converting raw minerals into higher-value products locally, the country can unlock economic growth, create much needed jobs and support broader industrial development.

NSDV has consistently emphasised, beneficiation cannot succeed through rigid mandates or blanket export restrictions. South Africa’s current power constraints, logistical bottlenecks and cost pressures mean that enforced beneficiation, without matching incentives or infrastructure, risks deterring investment.

A “carrot rather than stick” approach remains the most viable path. Incentives such as competitive electricity tariffs, targeted tax relief and streamlined approvals for processing facilities are more likely to attract long-term investment.

Countries that have anchored their beneficiation strategies in predictable incentives rather than punitive restrictions have enjoyed greater investor confidence and more sustainable growth.

The lesson for South Africa is clear: beneficiation must be pursued strategically, with a focus on minerals and value chains where the country holds a competitive advantage and a policy environment that encourages rather than compels local value addition.

AI, data centres and the energy transition

Artificial intelligence is transforming global industries, and the race toward more sophisticated, “always-learning” systems is dramatically increasing global energy demand.

Training advanced AI models consumes extraordinary amounts of electricity, and operating them requires constant, stable power. For countries seeking to host AI infrastructure data centres, high-performance computing and digital hubs, energy availability and affordability will determine competitiveness.

This presents a meaningful opportunity for South Africa. We have the sun, the wind and the land but require energy policy to support it.

The National Data and Cloud Policy encourages self-sufficient data centres, and the National AI Policy Framework signals a commitment to ethical, inclusive and well-regulated AI development. Combined with the anticipated evolution to King V, which places greater emphasis on governance of AI and emerging technologies, the direction is positive.

Renewable energy is central to this. Green power and energy storage solutions are fast becoming prerequisites for attracting data-intensive investment.

Countries that offer tariff relief or tax support for renewable hardware are already ahead. South Africa will need similar measures to remain competitive.

AI is not only a technological shift; it is an energy challenge. The two are now inseparable.

ESG: From voluntary language to enforceable expectations

ESG has moved far beyond voluntary commitments, and environmental and climate-related litigation will no longer be unusual.

South Africa’s regulatory environment is maturing quickly, and the proclamation of the Climate Change Act, 2024 marks a major turning point. The Act establishes a formal national framework for climate action, a just transition and the shift toward a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy.

While certain provisions have been deferred to allow for the finalisation of enabling regulations, the direction is clear: climate governance is no longer an emerging theme, it is an operational requirement.

Robin van Wyk, Senior Associate – Mining, Environmental & Energy Law – NSVD

Macro trends: Sector-level shifts shaping project viability

Regulators, financiers and communities are applying greater scrutiny to environmental and social impacts, with particular attention to water use, rehabilitation, climate resilience and meaningful community engagement. Approval processes now require strong evidence of alternatives, early identification of environmental risks and credible mitigation strategies.

Disclosure risk is also rising. Sustainability claims must match underlying permits, data and performance. Greenwashing allegations are more likely where statements exceed reality, and South Africa has already seen enforcement in this area. For boards and executives, ESG performance is no longer a narrative exercise, it is a compliance discipline with direct legal, financial and reputational consequences.

Mine closure and rehabilitation are also drawing increased attention as part of broader ESG expectations. Projects with weak or incomplete closure planning face heightened scrutiny. Closure obligations must therefore be integrated into project design from the outset, supported by realistic technical planning and adequate financial provisioning.

From now until 2030, we can expect more detailed climate and ESG-related rules, stronger governance expectations around AI and data and increased integration between mining, energy and digital infrastructure.

This creates significant opportunity for South Africa to lead in renewable energy, green hydrogen, critical minerals and data-driven development, provided the regulatory environment is clear and aligned with investment realities.

Micro trends: The evolving landscape of legal practice

These trends are reshaping the role of lawyers in the mining, energy, environmental and construction sectors. Three shifts are already visible:

• Contracts are changing: Agreements increasingly include ESG-aligned undertakings, carbon-related obligations, renewable power commitments, data governance requirements and adaptive compliance clauses. Contracting has become a strategic tool for long-term risk management.
• Risk assessment is more comprehensive: Legacy environmental liabilities, closure risk, climate exposure, water dependencies, community expectations and data-related obligations are now central considerations in transactions and financing. Legal teams need to integrate environmental, social, technical and governance assessments into a clear and holistic risk view.
• Local expertise matters more than ever: Understanding regulators, community dynamics and on-the-ground constraints can be the difference between an approval that progresses and one that stalls. NSDV’s belief in “people over paper” remains true: relationships and local insight often carry a project through complex regulatory terrain.

Looking ahead

The path forward is not about choosing between development and sustainability. It is about designing legal frameworks that enable both.

The organisations that anticipate these shifts, invest in credible ESG performance and build multidisciplinary, forward-looking teams will steer the future of South Africa’s mining, energy, environmental and construction sectors.

At this crossroads, legal foresight is no longer optional. It is the foundation of resilience and competitiveness.