Away from the media spotlight that continues to shine on Israel’s war on Gaza, there are reports of increasing confrontations between Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq and American soldiers stationed in those countries. There are even reports, zealously suppressed by both the United States and Iran, that increasing numbers of American victims are being treated in the region’s hospitals. This makes the situation all the more dangerous and vulnerable to inadvertent and sudden escalation.

Since the start of this latest Gaza war, the international community has found comfort in the fact that Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Iran-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah, did this publicly tried to de-escalate the situation and made it clear that he does not seek immediate direct dialogue with Israel or its allies. However, the fact that he had to come out twice in a week speaks volumes about the pressure building in the region, which could spiral out of control at any moment.

As we witness the unfolding of one of the worst humanitarian disasters since World War II – the collective punishment of a besieged population of 2.3 million people that has already resulted in the deaths of more than 14,000 people, including over 5,000 children – the G7 said Heads of State and Government I had trouble even saying the word “ceasefire.”

Instead, the United States and its allies have banded together to demand much more watered-down, irrelevant, and short-lived “humanitarian pauses.” Even as a four-day ceasefire was finally agreed on Wednesday after 47 days of war crimes and indiscriminate violence, the United States and its allies did not hesitate to announce their support for Israel’s stated intention to continue its brutal and disproportionate attacks on Gaza after this brief “pause.” “ of hostilities.

By effectively giving Israel carte blanche to do whatever it wanted in Gaza without regard to international law or the most basic human rights of Palestinians, these states destroyed their self-constructed image as guardians of a “rules-based world order.” .

They did this in part because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu manipulated their leaders and elites (who appear to be completely out of touch with the population they represent) to buy into the misleading narrative that Israel will have an event on October 7th experienced something comparable to the Holocaust at the hands of an evil force identical to ISIS.

By evoking memories of the Holocaust, Netanyahu managed to attribute a measure of sanctity to Israel’s unlawful and grossly disproportionate response, portraying himself and his country as constant victims and inspiring contempt for any attempt to push his narrative both within and outside of Israel within Israel to question or criticize The Western world.

And by comparing Hamas to ISIS, he managed to further dehumanize the Palestinians and convince the international community of the need to destroy Gaza to eradicate Hamas, just as they had to do in Mosul a few years ago to eradicate ISIS to eradicate.

Of course, this ignores the fact that unlike ISIS, Hamas is not driven by a blind ideology that requires it to kill non-adherents around the world. Netanyahu knows full well that Hamas is more than just a group of fighters – he knows that it is an idea rooted in the aspirations of an oppressed population to resist and free themselves from the shackles of their oppressors. Even if Israel somehow manages to kill all existing Hamas fighters, which is unthinkable without unleashing a human catastrophe of biblical proportions in the region, it will have only laid the foundation for a new generation of resistance, under Hamas or one Others united is a different avatar that will make the world long for the humility of the previous one.

If Netanyahu knows all this, then why is he working so hard to convince the world that Hamas is the same as ISIS and therefore must be completely eliminated at all costs?

The answer is simple: Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal is not only to unleash his wrath against Gaza with impunity, but also to persuade or manipulate the United States into fighting Iran on his behalf. This is something the veteran Israeli prime minister has always done advocate Since the US followed its orders in Iraq. And he is succeeding – the US has never been as close to an actual confrontation with Iran as it is today.

Iran, on the other hand, despite its strident rhetoric, remains keen to avoid direct confrontation with the US. Iran had already made it clear that it did not want to go to war with the US when it refrained from responding in any way to the assassination of its Major General Qasem Soleimani in January 2020. Iran’s reluctance to escalate was also evident in its muted response to the repeated bombings of Iranian bases in Syria and Iraq by the United States and Israel before October 7.

After his first significant diplomatic success against the USA since 1979 – which also included the Unlocking $6 billion in Iranian assets Rather than engaging in a costly direct confrontation, Iran clearly prefers to operate through its various armed proxy groups in the region. These groups have been engaged in a controlled escalation against Israel and the United States since October 7 to demonstrate their willingness to act as a deterrent while preventing Iran from being forced into direct war.

Iran’s strongest proxy, Hezbollah, no longer enjoys the regional prestige it once enjoyed for its support of Bashar al-Assad against the Syrian people in the civil war. Hezbollah is also wary of dragging its fragile homeland of Lebanon into a war that is not its own (considering that Hamas carried out the attack on Israel without consulting Hezbollah), and that inevitably becomes entirely economic lead to the collapse of Lebanon.

Furthermore, Hezbollah’s praise for the agreement that Lebanon concluded with Israel over the Karish gas field shows its pragmatism in the face of Lebanon’s precarious political and economic situation. For now, Hezbollah is content to help its ally, Hamas, by ensuring that significant Israeli forces are stationed in the north. This will provide some relief to Gaza while exacerbating Israel’s economic and social problems by forcing the evacuation of Israelis from the north.

But although both Iran and Hezbollah want to avoid direct confrontation with the US, Netanyahu appears determined to ensure his political survival at all costs. In the wake of the greatest intelligence failure in Israel’s history, which took place under his watch, Netanyahu declared a Religious war against the Palestinians, comparing them to the Amalekites and thus justifying their genocide, enforcing emergency laws by formally declaring war for the first time since 1973, summoning the army and reserve forces, forcing all of Israeli society to partner with him, and closing the war is the gateway to all critical voices against its countless mistakes.

Netanyahu’s repeated provocations, and in particular his portrayal of the war as a religious war, as well as the US reluctance to control and de-escalate it, mean that there is a serious risk that the conflict in Gaza will eventually turn into a much larger regional conflagration. One in which Iran can no longer reassure its own proxies in the region.

The region is already at boiling point. There is growing resentment among Arab, Muslim and broader populations of the Global South toward the United States, which they see as complicit in Israel’s war crimes. With the recent Arab uprising still fresh in their minds, Arab leaders will be careful not to test their people and give the impression that they are allying with the United States. It is very likely that in such an unstable situation, Israel will create a situation that triggers a direct confrontation between the US and Iran. It is up to the United States to decide whether it is willing to become Netanyahu’s blood partner in this region and engage here for another decade, repeating or perhaps even eclipsing its experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.