Fighting in Gaza resumed almost on time on Friday, as the final extension The ceasefire has expired and hopes of attempts to renew it have faded.

First, Israeli F-16 bombers were back in action, bombing more than 400 targets in Gaza, including some in the far south near the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. However, the focus appeared to be in the north, and there is little doubt that the Israeli army will try to push deeper into the center of Gaza City, just as Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had announced: tanks, artillery, armored bulldozers, then Infantry.

Meanwhile, conflicting news emerged from Qatar, where mediators from the host country, Egypt and the United States were still trying to persuade the warring factions to take another break. The initial announcement on Saturday said talks would continue.

Then, in the afternoon, the Israeli prime minister’s office released a statement: “Following the impasse… David Barnea, head of the Mossad, ordered his team in Doha to return to Israel.”

Writing official statements is an art: one should never lie, but there is no need to tell the whole truth either. While the “official” Israeli intelligence delegation may actually be a delegation on the way homeI have no doubt that at least a small team remains in Doha. They may not be Mossad, but it would be foolish not to leave qualified liaison officers who can continue talking.

Another reason for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to keep at least a core team of officials in Qatar would be to avoid straining relations with traditional ally the United States, which has strongly supported Israel in the post-October 7 crisis .

US President Joe Biden visited Israel and offered Bibi a photo, which the wily veteran of Israeli politics pounced on, showering the media with hugs and carefully chosen quotes. Washington followed with massive shipments of military supplies, some commercial sales, and other loans. The largest is likely to be the $14.3 billion aid package “for Israel’s defense.”

Practically since October 8th, US C-17 aircraft and commercial air transport have been bringing weapons and military equipment to Israel. The Washington Post reported that 15,000 bombs and 57,000 artillery shells (155 mm) arrived by air, a figure consistent with the estimated amount of ordnance expended in the eight-week campaign and the aircraft’s carrying capacity.

Less urgent supplies will arrive on less glamorous ships with greater capacity.

When bombing resumed, the media revealed the type of bombs being shipped to Israel, focusing primarily on the special heavy “bunker busters.” According to the report, 100 BLU-109 bombs were shipped. Some media outlets speculated that this delivery could mark a change in tactics against Hamas, but there is no cause for alarm.

The 900 kg (2,000 lb) BLU-109 is nothing more than a “dumb bomb” with thicker outer walls than general-purpose bombs, which help it penetrate deeper into the earth or through thicker layers of reinforced concrete before exploding. The MK84 general-purpose bomb of the corresponding weight class carries 430 kg (950 lb) of explosives, the “bunker buster” 240 kg (530 lb).

But the BLU-109, which costs U.S. taxpayers $65,000 apiece versus $16,000 for the MK84, is of little use to Israel as a dumb bomb. In order to be effective and hit targets precisely, it must be upgraded with a much more expensive laser guidance head unit and control tail. According to the same reports, the US delivered 3,000 such JDAM kits, which convert dumb bombs into smart weapons.

Aside from 100 bunker busters, the U.S. shipments also reportedly included two sizes of general-purpose bombs: 5,400 MK84 – 900 kg (2,000 lb) – and 5,000 MK82 – 450 kg (1,000 lb) – as well as 1,000 GBU-39 small-diameter precision-guided bombs.” – 150kg (300lb).

The US was concerned about the indiscriminate airstrikes on Palestinian targets, which were comparable to area bombings, and repeatedly called on Israel to reduce the number of civilian casualties.

After bombing resumed on Friday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Israel that “the massive loss of civilian life and scale of displacement that we have seen in the north must not be repeated in the south.”

He reportedly received assurances from Israel that they would try to kill fewer civilians, but the number of casualties in the first 24 hours of renewed fighting, with nearly 200 reportedly killed in the bombardment, leaves little room for optimism.

Can the number and type of bombs delivered to the Israeli army reveal anything about the intentions of the next stage of the air campaign?

Firstly, there is no reason to attach too much importance to the delivery of 100 bunker busters. Israel already had these in its arsenal and used some of them, so it may be a simple replenishment or a modest replenishment. Although the Hamas tunnels are long and sometimes deep, they are usually not covered with thick layers of concrete, so Israel would only need a handful of bunker busters.

Second, one could compare the number of conventional bombs delivered, 10,400 in two different weight classes, with the number of JDAM kits, 3,000. Together with the transfer of 1,000 small but precise “small-diameter bombs,” these figures could suggest that one in three or four bombs dropped in the future could be “smart” and that Israel would strive to reduce the number of civilian casualties in Gaza to reduce, as it supposedly promised the USA.

Such a conclusion would be premature. Without knowing the number of dumb bombs and smart kits that were in Israeli warehouses and bases before October 7 – a top military secret – one cannot know the ratio between precision-guided bombs and dumb bombs that indiscriminately destroy civilian infrastructure and kill non-combatants And it will be a few days before it becomes clear whether the way targets on the ground are attacked will change.