There are only six weeks left until the Republican presidential candidates face the first big test of the US primaries: the Iowa caucuses. A win at state could set the tone for the rest of the race.

It is a crucial time. And it is at this moment – with the election meetings approaching – that the fourth Republican debate should unfold.

But Wednesday’s debate will mark a change of tactics. While the previous three debates took place on mainstream news networks, the latest installment landed on a lesser-known platform: 24-hour cable news channel NewsNation.

Last year, media research firm Nielsen ranked NewsNation at No. 107 on its list of most-watched television networks, well behind previous debate moderators such as NBC and Fox News at No. 4.

But experts say NewsNation’s decision was strategic. Not only is this a rebuke to the mainstream media, but it could also serve as a gesture to the current front-runner for the Republican nomination, Donald Trump.

The former president is a prominent critic of platforms like Fox News and has done so I skipped every debate so far this election season, in part citing dissatisfaction with the debate moderators.

“It could well be that Republicans are giving in to Trump’s pressure,” said Patrick A. Stewart, a political science professor at the University of Arkansas.

“What this move will likely do in practice is reduce the candidates’ reach on the stage and protect Donald Trump’s position as the front-runner for the GOP nomination.”

A “children’s table” for Trump’s rivals

Since Trump announced his candidacy in November 2022, he has led the Republican field by a seemingly insurmountable lead. An estimated 60 percent of Republicans support him, according to a poll released Monday by NewsNation and Decision Desk HQ.

His nearest rival was the governor of Florida Ron DeSantisis a distant second with 11 percent support, followed by the former UN ambassador Nikki Haley at 10 percent.

Neither has ever come close to Trump’s numbers in a national poll. DeSantis and Haley will be joined in Wednesday’s debate phase by two more outsiders: entrepreneurs Vivek Ramaswamy and former governor of New Jersey Chris Christie.

Stewart noted that the choice of a smaller platform – as well as Trump’s continued absence from the debate stage – could be seen as a disparagement of his four closest rivals.

“In a way, this can be seen as a relegation of the four currently active candidates to the children’s table,” he said.

But the reduced importance of the debate provides an advantage for the Republican Party as a whole, Stewart added. It helps the party appease Trump while blunting any criticism he might face in the debate stage.

Trump’s campaign previously called on the Republican Party to cancel all remaining debates “to refocus its manpower and money on thwarting Democrats’ efforts” to retain the White House in 2024.

Trump has long had a strained relationship with the Republican leadership and has even threatened in the past to split from the party and run as an independent.

But the Republican Party is increasingly reflecting Trump’s own views, including to the media.

Trump’s refusal to participate in the debates is partly due to his vocal opposition to mainstream platforms. Earlier this year, he accused Fox News – one of the previous moderators of this year’s debate – of suppressing his poll results.

“Why doesn’t Fox and Friends show all the polls I win? [President Joe] Biden, by far. They just won’t do it!” Trump continued to write social media. “And then they want me to debate.”

Over the years, Trump has made a habit of calling media outlets he believes disagree with his leadership “corrupt,” “fake,” and “enemies of the people.”

This rhetoric was adopted into the broader Republican field. While the last debateTrump’s rival Ramaswamy repeated his arguments, including his false claims of voter fraud.

“This is about you in the media and the corrupt media establishment,” Ramaswamy said from the stage, speaking directly to host network NBC. “We need accountability because this media manipulated the 2016 election. They rigged the 2020 election.”

This suspicion has trickled down to the electorate. A Associated Press-NORC poll from May showed that 60 percent of Republican adults have little to no trust in the news media, compared to 26 percent of Democrats.

Just as many Republicans — 61 percent — thought the news media “does more to harm democracy” than protect it.

“Getting away” from large corporations

The Republican Party has responded to these fears with its choice of debate hosts for the 2024 race, mixing mainstream platforms with smaller, more conservative-leaning startups to reach a broader audience.

For example, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel announced in April that every debate would be livestreamed on Rumble, an online video platform popular with conservatives.

“We are moving away from Big Tech,” McDaniel explained on the television show Fox & Friends, citing the mainstream platform YouTube as an example.

For Stewart, the decision reflects a growing disillusionment with the dominant media conglomerates, many of which are owned by a relatively small number of corporations. Even the conservative bastion Fox News is part of the larger Fox Corporation, which operates a range of broadcast services.

“The current Republican Party’s transition from traditional media outlets, including Fox News, to the much lesser-known NewsNation – as well as Rumble instead of YouTube – could be portrayed as a declaration of independence from the mainstream media,” he said.

But these decisions come with costs. Rumble, like NewsNation, has a much smaller viewership than its larger competitors. It was registered 58 million The number of monthly active users in the third quarter of 2023 dwarfs the more than two billion monthly users YouTube reported earlier this year.

A blessing for the network

Still, switching to a platform like NewsNation could pay off, according to Josh C. Bramlett, a professor at the University of Alabama who studies political communication.

“The party can reach voters who represent the audience of a news channel. You can target specific segments of voters who consume this media,” Bramlett explained.

The relationship could be mutually beneficial for networks like NewsNation, he added. “The network can promote its brand and be the center of the political news world.”

NewsNation, in turn, owned by media conglomerate Nexstar Media Group, promotes itself as an “unbiased” alternative to its larger competitors.

There was an emphasis on attracting on-air talent abandoned by other networks, as evidenced by the choice of debate moderators: former ABC host Elizabeth Vargas and Megyn Kelly, previously of Fox News and NBC.

Ultimately, some experts believe the biggest winner from Wednesday’s debate could be NewsNation itself, catapulting itself into the political big leagues.

Michael

“While I doubt the upcoming debate will reach those numbers, NewsNation will almost certainly significantly exceed its current viewership,” Delli Carpini said. He noted that the station averages between 76,000 and 117,000 viewers per night during prime time.

“The big question for them is whether new viewers will return to the channel,” Delli Carpini continued. However, he believes the outlook is optimistic: “I suspect some of them will.”