Samia Suluhu Hassan was sworn in for a second term as Tanzania’s president on 3 November, just three days after contentious elections plunged the nation into violence. The inauguration ceremony took place at a military facility in the capital Dodoma; only a handful of the country’s political and military elite were allowed access. Hassan, who has been in office since 2021 following the death of President John Magufuli, was declared winner of the presidential election with 97.6% of the vote.

The results were rejected by the opposition and a significant portion of the population, who took to the streets in droves to protest against an electoral process that for many felt more like a coronation ceremony for an imperial presidency than a real democratic choice. Scores were killed and injured by security forces who used live ammunition and brute force to disperse crowds. An official tally of the dead, injured and missing is yet to be released, but UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk had reports of “hundreds” being killed in the security crackdowns in Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, Arusha and other parts of the country where protests erupted.

Robbed of choice

Though 16 other candidates ran against Hassan, critics charge that their participation was merely to maintain the illusion of choice. Experienced political opponents with considerable public support, including Tundu Lissu of the Chadema party and Luhaga Mpina of the Alliance for Change and Transparency, were excluded from the race. Lissu is in police custody on charges of treason while Mpina was disqualified from running on technicalities.

On election day authorities deployed the military and police in opposition zones, restricted independent observers from doing their job, and switched off the internet nationwide. In the days that followed, local media worked under restrictive reporting guidelines while foreign correspondents were barred from entering the country. Curfews were also imposed in parts of the country.

In a scathing preliminary report, the African Union (AU) observer mission, led by former Botswana President Mokgweetsi Masisi, concluded that the “uncompetitive” elections “did not comply with AU principles, normative frameworks and other international obligations and standards for democratic elections”. In its preliminary report, it offered insights into how the voting process in some stations was

manipulated. The AU noted that its observers reported “ballot stuffing at several polling stations, where voters were issued multiple ballots to vote.” It said that all polling stations observed exhibited low voter turnout, “indicating voter apathy and disengagement from the electoral process.”

Issues run deeper than elections

Bravious Kahyoza, an economist and political analyst at Dar es Salaam-based Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group, said the elections showed that the ruling class are no longer attentive to the demands of the citizenry.

He claims that calls to reform the constitution have fallen on deaf ears despite public support. Tanzania’s constitution still does not provide for legal challenges to presidential results. The country’s constitution also contains several contentious provisions that critics argue are purposely designed to maintain the ruling party’s vice-like grip on power.

“The leadership has been reluctant for so long to listen to the call for a governance architecture review.

Kahyoza notes that there is a widespread perception that the ruling class are benefiting from a corrupt system. “In the last four years, it seems the corruption issue has gotten out of hand. Leaders have not been accountable and responsible whenever corruption issues have arisen,” he says.

“Tanzania won’t be the same again. It won’t be business as usual. Some things will have to happen to bring about constitutional changes and tackle inequality.”

Trading blame

In her first speech to parliament after being sworn in, Hassan condemned the violence that surrounded the polls and told lawmakers that her administration has tasked a commission of inquiry to look into the root issues that triggered the post-election violence.

She dismissed claims that the violent protests were the result of a legitimate people-led movement, instead alleging that opposition leaders and civil society actors bent on sowing seeds of division were pulling the strings behind the scenes.

“Didn’t they urge others to boycott the elections? Didn’t they say that Tanzania won’t be calm? Didn’t they claim that things would go haywire if their demands weren’t met?”

But critics say that civil society leaders, opposition figures and protestors are the least of the president’s worries. Reports suggest murmurings of growing discontent within the ranks of the ruling CCM party. Political survival could take precedence over party loyalty.

“The mood on the ground has shifted and many politicians are now more careful about being seen to be too supportive of the government agenda,” Kahyoza says.

Economic gains at risk

Kahyoza says the president managed to put the economy on the right trajectory during her first term. He

points to key macro indicators, including GDP, foreign direct investment (FDI) and wages, which he says have all improved markedly since she came into office.

“We do agree that from a macroeconomic point of view, she has performed very well, courtesy of her thinking and policy when she promised to open the economy, reversing the isolationist policies of Magufuli.

“This has led to a boost in FDI, tourism and investor confidence,” he says.

According to UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Tanzania attracted $1.72bn in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024, a 28.4% increase from $1.34bn in 2023. The country recorded inflows of $1.1bn in 2022, $1bn in 2021 and $944m in 2020. The IMF expects growth of 6% this year, building on 5.4% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2023.

Tanzania’s main vulnerability is its reliance on concessional loans from donors. These are typically dependent on conditionalities, key among them good governance, democratic reforms and a clean human rights record. With Tanzania regressing on these measures, there are fears that it may struggle to access financing for key projects in the current and next financial year.

Indeed, the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs and its Committee on Development in November adopted a resolution calling on the European Commission to withdraw its draft decision on the financing of the 2025 Annual Action Plan (AAP) for Tanzania. The lawmakers cited serious concerns over democratic backsliding, human rights deficiencies and the conduct of the elections. Similar action is expected from many of Tanzania’s development partners, particularly Western nations.

Hassan acknowledged this possibility. “What happened has stained our reputation. There is a likelihood it could impact our ability to access concessional loans as we did during my first term. It’s a setback that we can overcome if we focus on domestic resource mobilisation, leveraging our natural resources to access capital. We have to plan our development independently and partners can join us along the way,” she told MPs.

But domestic resources alone may prove insufficient, Kahyoza notes, warning that constrained financing could derail economic progress.

The solution, he says, is real reform of Tanzania’s democracy and rebuilding trust with international partners. “Tanzania should stop the hubris that we have our own democracy. We have to come to terms with what has happened and assure the world that we are ready to change. We have to fix the political question for the economy to get back on track.”